Computing Performance and Power Consumption to Become Key Issues in Mobile Computing
From all the different low-price mini notebook PC, Netbook and MID products on display at Computex 2008 to the face-off between the Wintel camp and the ARM camp, it can be seen that competition in the PC industry not only revolves around fierce price competition, but that business models with long-term viability and good user experiences are emphasized even more. PC shipment volume in the past few years has maintained double-digit growth rates, but growth rates for shipment value have been in single digits for a period of time now. This means that companies will need to leave behind the red oceans, which feature intense competition, and find new blue oceans. Only then do companies have a chance to be competitive in the marketplace. Reductions in manufacturing costs have limits, and in the future this will no longer be the PC industry's only competitive weapon.
The mobile computing industry is characterized by a large number of imitation products, with many followers active in the market. Few companies actually want to spend the time and effort needed to differentiate products, and there is little interest in business models focused on R&D innovation due to investment risks. The follower model in the mobile computing industry is omnipresent. Examples include ECS's DeskNote, the product concept of which was picked up by Compaq; the Acer Ferrari notebook PC, which was followed by a Lamborghini notebook PC from Asus. More recent examples include the Apple MacBook Air, which was followed by the Lenovo X300 and by the HP Voodoo Envy 133; HP's 2133 Mini-Note followed the Asus Eee PC.
The competition in the mobile computing field can be seen as another battle between the PC and handheld device industries. The Taiwanese PC and handheld device industries, which mainly engage in contract production, are naturally part of this development. Setting specifications and dominating market development are still roles mainly played by mainstream IT vendors. Although Taiwanese OEM/ODM makers and component suppliers could take advantages of some market opportunities, they will still mainly support international vendors in strengthening the market.
Wintel's Strategies in the Mobile Computing Field
The Intel Atom is part of the company's strategy to develop the handheld device segment using x86. Furthermore, the company is engaged in multi-faceted development of the market. Breakthroughs in power consumption issues (including chip production processes: Nvidia currently uses 65nm, Intel 45nm) will have a major impact. If power consumption issues can be resolved, the mobile computing industry will see a major impact.
In the past it was believed that there were technology bottlenecks in terms of improving the x86 architecture's power consumption. However, following progress in semiconductor production processes and CPU architecture, at present it seems more and more likely that it can be done. Perhaps it will always trail behind ARM-based power consumption, but users might not see the difference between 0.1 Watt and 1 Watt. Recharging a battery once every 10 days or once every 100 might not be a big difference.
Power consumption will drop if Intel makes changes to the dual-core architecture. If everything can be fit in during production processes and packaging, costs could possibly decline. But x86 architecture has its special characteristics, and in theory it is very hard to achieve the cost structure of ARM-based devices. Furthermore, the Atom needs to be bundled with other chipsets, while currently Nvidia and Marvell are SoC (System on Chip). But this problem will become smaller. The current strategy of the Wintel camp is to control prices by relying on large volumes, while teaming up with Taiwanese OEM/ODM companies.
Battery standby time and heat dissipation are areas in which the x86 camp needs to overtake the ARM/MISP camp. ARM products only have one CPU, while Intel's have CPU plus I/O chip. As for web browsing functions, a CPU using MIPS will do. Furthermore, different platforms have different demand for computing, and this is why VIA could enter the market, positioned between high (x86) and low (MIPS).
As for Microsoft, from the ULPC to the OLPC, and the Eee PC and Netbook, one can see the company's efforts to combat Linux and open source software. Thoroughly influencing potential PC users and making it difficult for them in the future to avoid the Windows usage environment and interface is a strong strategy for Microsoft. Its ultimate goal is to create new market opportunities and defend its own market share. The low-price PC products hitting the market emphasize Internet functionalities, and they target emerging markets and educational markets.
Regarding developed nations, Wintel aims to push the second PC concept. Besides rolling out simplified versions of its software products, it has also made concessions in terms of price, with Wintel giving Taiwanese PC ODM/OEM makers better discounts and even more support services. During Computex 2008 the company promoted Netbook and Nettop products. It also tried to challenge Linux, which has advantages in the low-price PC segment, and the company aggressively pushed its XP versions for low-price PCs.
The Mobile Computing 1.0 era mainly segmented mobile computing products by display size and price. The Mobile Computing 2.0 era segments products by CPU performance and power consumption. As for users, they mostly care about applications and services of mobile computing products and whether these meet their needs and offer them new experiences. The Mobile Computing 3.0 era will therefore focus on content, and products will be segmented by functions and communications functions, combining usage environment, technology and services.